Abstract: To reduce the risk in production evaluation and optimize the development program of shale gas play,an uncertainty analysis method is proposed to analyze the production decline type curve for shale gas reservoirs.According to the hyperbolic decline theory,a typical curve for each well was obtained based on the production data of 19 shale gas wells.The probability P90,P50 and P10 of typical curves show up were suggested based on the type curve parameters obtained from uncertainty analysis method.With this method,the P90,P50 and P10 typical curves for a shale gas block were obtained,and the EURs corresponding to P90,P50,P10 are 0.26×108 m3,0.91×108 m3 and 2.11×108 m3.Results show that the P50 typical curve approximates to that from conventional certainty analysis method.Uncertainty analyis method can be used as a reference to optimize the development program of shale gas.