基于数据驱动的钻速预测模型动态更新研究

Rate of Penetration Prediction Model Dynamic Update Based on Data-Driven Method

  • 摘要: 深部地层岩石强度高,造成机械钻速偏低、钻井成本高,精准预测机械钻速是制定提速策略、优化钻井参数、实现缩短钻井周期和降本增效的关键依据。但现有数据驱动钻速预测模型多基于固定历史数据集训练,跨井/跨井段钻进时因地层、钻具变动引发数据分布漂移,模型泛化能力大幅降低,且现有动态更新研究较为零散,缺少多模型、多更新模式下预测精度与更新效率的系统性对比。为此,建立了一套适配随钻数据流的钻速预测模型动态更新技术体系。首先,基于杨格钻速方程筛选钻压、转速、钻井液参数等录井原始特征,采用3σ准则+孤立森林剔除异常值,构建滑动窗口统计二次特征抑制数据噪声、规避标签泄露;其次,优选XGB、GBDT、ELM、深度神经网络(知识蒸馏KD)4类具备增量更新能力的基模型,分别提出树模型增量增枝、ELM递归最小二乘参数迭代、知识蒸馏迁移学习3种更新算法;最后,设计了5种随钻动态更新模式,依托渤海B油田9口井74 711条实测录井数据进行了对比试验。结果表明:数据漂移显著井段模型增量更新可使EMAP降低20%~30%,继承基模型是保障更新效果的必要条件;单纯复用历史增量或全量重训练易引入数据冲突、降低预测精度;ELM的更新速度最快,但占用的内存多,XGB/GBDT兼顾精度与算力需求,知识蒸馏深度模型预测精度最高,但更新耗时更长。现场应综合精度与时效性选择模型和更新模式:实时随钻更新推荐增量模式,间歇期可采用全量数据集离线重训练更新;内存充足时选用ELM,追求高精度时采用知识蒸馏神经网络。研究结果为随钻智能钻速预测模型自适应迭代提供了理论支持与参考。

     

    Abstract: The high rock strength in deep formations leads to low rate of penetration (ROP) and high drilling costs. Accurate ROP prediction is a critical basis for formulating acceleration strategies and optimizing drilling parameters to shorten cycle time and reduce costs while improving efficiency. However, existing data-driven ROP prediction models are mostly trained on fixed historical datasets. During drilling across wells or well sections, data distribution drift occurs due to variations in formations and drilling tools, significantly degrading model generalization capability. Furthermore, existing research on dynamic updating remains fragmented, lacking systematic comparisons of prediction accuracy and update efficiency across multiple models and updating modes. To address these issues, a dynamic updating technical system compatible with data streams while drilling was established for ROP prediction models. First, based on the Young’s ROP equation, raw logging features including weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed, and drilling fluid parameters were screened. Outliers were eliminated using the 3σ criterion combined with an isolation forest, and sliding-window statistical secondary features were constructed to suppress data noise and avoid label leakage. Second, four base models with incremental updating capabilities, namely extreme gradient boosting (XGB), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), extreme learning machine (ELM), and deep neural network (knowledge distillation, KD), were selected, and three updating algorithms were proposed: incremental branch growth for tree-based models, recursive least squares parameter iteration for ELM, and transfer learning via knowledge distillation. Five modes of dynamic updating while drilling were designed, and comparative experiments were conducted using 74 711 measured logging data records from 9 wells in the Bohai B Oilfield. The results indicated that incremental model updating in well sections with significant data drift can reduce mean absolute percentage error (EMAP) by 20%–30%, and inheriting the base model was a necessary condition for ensuring update effectiveness. Simply reusing historical incremental data or performing full retraining tended to introduce data conflicts and reduce prediction accuracy. ELM offered the fastest updating speed but consumed more memory. XGB/GBDT balanced accuracy and computational demands. The knowledge-distilled deep model achieved the highest prediction accuracy but required longer update time. In field applications, the choice of model and updating mode should balance accuracy and timeliness: Incremental updating is recommended for real-time updating while drilling, while offline full-dataset retraining can be employed during idle intervals. ELM is preferred when memory is sufficient, whereas the knowledge-distilled neural network is recommended when high accuracy is pursued. The findings provide theoretical support and engineering references for the adaptive iteration of intelligent ROP prediction models while drilling.

     

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