Abstract:
To address the challenge of dynamic production prediction for indirectly fractured wells in soft and fragmented coal seams, a productivity prediction model was established. The model couples multiple physical processes, including coalbed methane (CBM) desorption, diffusion, seepage, and interlayer flow. Based on laboratory interlayer flow experiments, the interlayer flow resistance coefficient between coal and sandstone was determined. Additionally, reservoir seepage experiments for indirectly fractured systems were designed to validate the model. Simulation results indicate that indirect fracturing promotes CBM desorption in regions near the interface and in areas far from the fracture, thereby significantly enhancing gas production. The permeability of adjacent strata and the thickness ratio between adjacent layers and the coal seam both show a positive correlation with production. However, when the thickness ratio exceeds 1.6, the incremental benefit diminishes. The fracture height in adjacent layers has a relatively minor impact, whereas increasing fracture length can significantly improve productivity. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the influencing factors on productivity, in descending order, are fracture length, sandstone permeability, sandstone thickness, and fracture height in the sandstone layer. Application to a test well in the Qinshui Basin shows good agreement between predicted and measured daily gas production, with a coefficient of determination of 0.85 and a root mean square error of
0.0265×10
4 m
3/d, further confirming the reliability of the model. The results provide a theoretical basis for layer selection and production regime optimization of indirectly fractured wells in broken soft coal seams.