碎软煤层间接压裂井产能预测方法及敏感性分析

Productivity Prediction Method and Sensitivity Analysis for Indirectly Fractured Wells in Broken Soft Coal Seams

  • 摘要: 为解决碎软煤层间接压裂井产气量动态预测困难的问题,建立了碎软煤层间接压裂井产能预测模型。模型耦合了煤层气解吸、扩散、渗流及层间流动等多物理过程,并通过室内层间流动实验,得到煤岩与砂岩之间的层间流动阻力系数,设计了间接压裂储层渗流实验,并对模型进行验证。模拟结果表明,间接压裂可促进界面附近、远离裂缝区域煤层气的解吸,从而显著提升产气量;相邻岩层渗透率、相邻岩层与煤层厚度比均与产气量呈正相关,且当厚度比大于1.6时,增益效应减弱,邻层裂缝高度对产气量的影响较小,但增加裂缝长度,可显著提升产能;产能敏感性影响因素从大到小依次为裂缝长度、砂岩层渗透率、砂岩层厚度和砂岩层裂缝高度。沁水盆地某试验井现场实测日产气量与预测值拟合的决定系数为0.85,均方根差为0.0265×104 m3/d,进一步验证了模型的可靠性。研究结果为碎软煤层间接压裂井的层位选择及排采制度优化提供了理论依据。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenge of dynamic production prediction for indirectly fractured wells in soft and fragmented coal seams, a productivity prediction model was established. The model couples multiple physical processes, including coalbed methane (CBM) desorption, diffusion, seepage, and interlayer flow. Based on laboratory interlayer flow experiments, the interlayer flow resistance coefficient between coal and sandstone was determined. Additionally, reservoir seepage experiments for indirectly fractured systems were designed to validate the model. Simulation results indicate that indirect fracturing promotes CBM desorption in regions near the interface and in areas far from the fracture, thereby significantly enhancing gas production. The permeability of adjacent strata and the thickness ratio between adjacent layers and the coal seam both show a positive correlation with production. However, when the thickness ratio exceeds 1.6, the incremental benefit diminishes. The fracture height in adjacent layers has a relatively minor impact, whereas increasing fracture length can significantly improve productivity. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the influencing factors on productivity, in descending order, are fracture length, sandstone permeability, sandstone thickness, and fracture height in the sandstone layer. Application to a test well in the Qinshui Basin shows good agreement between predicted and measured daily gas production, with a coefficient of determination of 0.85 and a root mean square error of 0.0265×104 m3/d, further confirming the reliability of the model. The results provide a theoretical basis for layer selection and production regime optimization of indirectly fractured wells in broken soft coal seams.

     

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