基于机器学习的地层三压力钻前预测方法

A Pre-Drilling Prediction Method of Formation Tri-Pressures Based on Machine Learning

  • 摘要: 海洋深层、超深层油气勘探采用传统的地层三压力剖面计算模型时存在预测可信度低、计算效率不足等问题。为此,基于机器学习方法,以深度神经网络模型为主体架构,引入岩石力学物理模型作为物理约束条件,通过在损失函数中联合优化数据拟合误差与物理残差项,实现物理约束的数学嵌入,同时考虑地质、测井、录井及现场工况等多源数据,建立了物理−数据双驱动的地层三压力钻前预测模型,并采用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和决定系数(R2)进行模型评估。该模型在北部湾涠西南凹陷乌石区块进行了现场应用,结果显示,地层三压力钻前预测结果与实际差异较小,模型具有较高的预测精度,预测结果符合现场应用效果。基于机器学习的地层三压力钻前预测方法可以为深层、超深层安全高效钻进提供技术支持。

     

    Abstract: In response to the issues of low prediction reliability and insufficient computational efficiency associated with conventional models in calculating formation tri-pressures for offshore deep and ultra-deep oil and gas exploration, a machine learning-based method was used. In the method, a deep neural network (DNN) model was used as the main structure, and rock mechanics physical models were integrated as physical constraints. By jointly optimizing data-fitting errors and physical residual terms in the loss function, the mathematical embedding of the physical constraints was achieved. Additionally, it l incorporated multi-source data, including geological, logging, mud logging , and field operational data, to establish a physics − data-driven formation tri-pressure prediction model. Model performance was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The model was applied in the Wushi Block of the South Weixi Depression in the Beibuwan Basin. The results demonstrate minimal discrepancies between predicted and actual formation tri-pressure values, indicating high prediction accuracy, with results consistent with actual application. This machine learning-based pre-drilling prediction method of formation tri-pressures can provide technical support for safe and efficient drilling in deep and ultra-deep formations.

     

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