王彪,李军,杨宏伟,等. 基于工程参数变化趋势的溢流早期智能检测方法[J]. 石油钻探技术,2024,52(5):1-9. DOI: 10.11911/syztjs.2024093
引用本文: 王彪,李军,杨宏伟,等. 基于工程参数变化趋势的溢流早期智能检测方法[J]. 石油钻探技术,2024,52(5):1-9. DOI: 10.11911/syztjs.2024093
WANG Biao, LI Jun, YANG Hongwei, et al. An early intelligent kick detection method based on the variation trend of drilling parameters[J]. Petroleum Drilling Techniques, 2024, 52(5):1-9. DOI: 10.11911/syztjs.2024093
Citation: WANG Biao, LI Jun, YANG Hongwei, et al. An early intelligent kick detection method based on the variation trend of drilling parameters[J]. Petroleum Drilling Techniques, 2024, 52(5):1-9. DOI: 10.11911/syztjs.2024093

基于工程参数变化趋势的溢流早期智能检测方法

An early intelligent kick detection method based on the variation trend of drilling parameters

  • 摘要: 由于溢流数据样本量稀缺、不同钻井工况以及溢流后不同时期钻井参数响应规律差异性等,现有溢流检测方法鲁棒性差、难以应用于钻井全过程。为此,基于随机森林算法(random forest, RF)建立钻井工况智能识别模型,结合物理模型消除钻井工况对溢流特征参数的影响,提取并融合特征参数趋势值,构建了溢流风险指数(kick risk index, KRI)自适应计算方法,形成了一种基于工程参数变化趋势的溢流早期智能检测方法。利用3口井的溢流数据对提出的方法进行了验证,结果表明:钻井工况智能识别模型的准确率为96.5%,相比较人工坐岗预警,平均预警提前时间为8.3 min。研究表明,该方法能够适应于钻井全过程溢流检测和部分特征参数测量失效的场景,对于保障钻井安全,缩短钻井周期具有一定指导意义。

     

    Abstract: Due to factors such as the scarcity of kick data samples, variations in different drilling conditions, and the differences in the response patterns of drilling parameters during different stages after a kick, existing kick detection methods exhibit poor robustness and are difficult to apply throughout the drilling process. Therefore, a method for early intelligent kick detection based on the trend of engineering parameter changes is proposed. Using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, an intelligent recognition model for drilling conditions is established. This model combines a physical model to eliminate the impact of drilling conditions on kick characteristic parameters, extracting and integrating the trend values of these parameters to construct an adaptive calculation method for the Kick Risk Index (KRI). The proposed method was validated using kick data from three wells, and the results show that the accuracy of the intelligent recognition model for drilling conditions is 96.5%. Compared to manual warning methods, the average early warning time is 8.3 min. The study demonstrates that this method is suitable for kick detection throughout the entire drilling process and for scenarios where some characteristic parameter measurements may fail. It has significant guiding implications for ensuring drilling safety and shortening drilling cycles.

     

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