基于工程参数变化趋势的溢流早期智能检测方法

An Early Intelligent Kick Detection Method Based on Variation Trend of Engineering Parameters

  • 摘要: 由于溢流数据样本量稀缺、不同钻井工况及溢流后不同时期钻井参数响应规律差异等因素,现有溢流检测方法鲁棒性差,难以应用于钻井全过程。为此,基于随机森林算法(random forest,RF)建立了钻井工况智能识别模型,结合物理模型消除钻井工况对溢流特征参数的影响;提取并融合特征参数趋势值,构建溢流风险指数(kick risk index,KRI)自适应计算方法,形成了基于工程参数变化趋势的溢流早期智能检测方法。3口井的溢流数据验证结果表明,钻井工况智能识别模型的准确率为96.5%,相比人工坐岗预警,平均预警提前时间为8.3 min。研究表明,该方法适用于钻井全过程溢流检测和部分特征参数测量失效的场景,对于保障钻井安全、缩短钻井周期具有一定的指导作用。

     

    Abstract: Due to the scarcity of kick data samples, variations in different drilling conditions, and differences in the response rules of drilling parameters during different stages after a kick, existing kick detection methods exhibit poor robustness and are difficult to apply throughout the drilling process. By using the random forest (RF) algorithm, an intelligent recognition model for drilling conditions was established. This model combined a physical model to eliminate the impact of drilling conditions on kick characteristic parameters, extracting and integrating the trend values of these parameters to construct an adaptive calculation method for the kick risk index (KRI). In addition, a method for early intelligent kick detection based on the variation trend of engineering parameters was proposed. The proposed method was validated by using kick data from three wells, and the results showed that the accuracy of the intelligent recognition model for drilling conditions was 96.5%. Compared to manual warning methods, the average early warning time is 8.3 min in advance. The research demonstrates that this method is suitable for kick detection throughout the drilling process and for scenarios where some characteristic parameter measurements may fail. It has significant guiding implications for ensuring drilling safety and shortening drilling cycles.

     

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