The Study on Decarbonization Pathway and Structural Transformation of Oil Companies in China
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摘要:
2015年，《巴黎协定》提出本世纪末全球平均气温较工业化前水平上升幅度控制在2 ℃之内，为积极应对气候变化，我国政府提出了“2030碳达峰，2060碳中和”的目标，但低碳运行下的经济体转型仍面临严峻挑战。为此，基于碳市场、碳交易与碳政策的现状，利用数据挖掘和人工智能数据分析，对全球CO2排放现状和“双碳”目标下国际油气公司的能源转型举措进行了调研分析，并基于我国碳排放及油气领域实用“脱碳”技术现状，给出了我国“脱碳”路径的4项建议，包括推广低碳新材料和新技术、推行通用碳市场标准、制定绿色转型企业保护性政策和激励低碳研发等，提出了我国油公司能源转型的5个关键方向，包括加速低碳化油气勘探开发、开展碳足迹全链评价、推进页岩气智能集约开发、加快氢能技术和CCUS技术研发等。这对我国双碳目标的实现和油公司的顺利转型具有一定的指导意义。
Abstract:The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed that the global average temperature rise by the end of the century should be controlled within 2 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. In order to actively respond to climate change, the Chinese government has put forward the goal of “carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”. However, the economic transformation under low-carbon operation still faces severe challenges. In this regard, based on the carbon market, carbon trading and carbon policy, the status of global CO2 emissions and the energy transformation measures taken by international oil and gas companies for the dual carbon goal were investigated and analyzed with data mining and artificial intelligence data analysis. Based on the status of carbon emission in China and the practical decarbonization technologies in the oil and gas field, four key recommendations for decarbonization pathways were put forward, including popularizing new low-carbon material and technologies, promoting general carbon market standards, formulating protective policies for green transformation enterprises, and encouraging low-carbon research and development. What's more, five key areas for the energy transformation of oil companies in China were proposed, which are accelerating low-carbon development and exploration of oil and gas, carrying out carbon footprint full-chain evaluation, promoting intelligent and intensive development of shale gas, expediting research and development of hydrogen energy and CCUS technology. The research results can provide a valuable reference for the achievement of the dual carbon goal and the smooth transformation of oil companies.
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图 1 基于碳排放趋势的全球不同国家或地区分类
Figure 1. Classification based on the trend of carbon emissions in different countries and areas around the world
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图 2 深部咸水层CO2地质封存流程
Figure 2. Geological sequestration process of CO2 in deepsaline aquifer
表 1 不同国际油气公司的能源转型策略及主要指标
Table 1 Main indicators and transformation strategies of different international oil companies
公司 主要指标 BP 2025年，油气生产的CH4排放强度下降到0.2%
2030年，运营所产生的碳排放在2019年基础上减少30%～35%，产品碳强度在2019年的基础上降低15%
2050年或之前，成为净零排放公司，上游油气产品排放达到净零，产品碳排放强度降低50% （全生命周期）壳牌 2025年，油气生产的CH4排放强度下降到0.2%
2035年，能源产品碳足迹将比2016年减少30%
2050年或更早实现能源业务净零排放，产品制造过程实现净零排， 协助客户使用壳牌能源产品实现净零排放，能源产品碳足迹减少65%雷普索尔 2016年为基准，到2025年碳排放强度下降10%，以炼油为主的工业领域直接排放减少25%，低碳发电领域增加至7.5 GW
2030年碳排放强度下降20%，2040年下降40%， 2050年实现净零排放挪威国家石油 2026年可再生能源产能提高10倍，达到4～6 GW
2030年挪威地区油气生产过程中的排放量降低40%，消除常规火炬，实现CH4净零排放
2035年可再生能源产能增加至12～16 GW，发展成为全球海上风电产业巨头
2040年挪威地区油气生产过程中的排放量降低70%
2050年碳排放强度降低50%，挪威地区油气生产过程实现零排放道达尔 2025年CH4排放强度控制在0.2%以下
2030年全球生产和能源产品碳排放强度降至15%
2050年或之前，在全球范围内实现净零排放
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