我国页岩油立体开发效益评价研究

Research on the Evaluation of Shale Oil Stereoscopic Development Efficiency in China

  • 摘要: 我国原油对外依存度长期处于高位,页岩油已成为国内原油增储上产重要接替资源,立体开发是提升陆相页岩油储量动用程度、提高开发效益的关键技术模式。当前相关研究多聚焦开发技术优化与主控因素分析,缺少融合地质、开发、工程、经济多维度的页岩油立体开发效益定量评价体系。为此,系统梳理页岩油立体开发效益主控因素,遵循“地质与油藏—开发—工程—经济”一体化思路,构建了包含4个一级指标、11个二级指标、19个三级指标的效益评价指标体系;融合层次分析法与模糊综合评价法,建立页岩油立体开发井组综合效益定量评价方法。以胜利济阳页岩油国家级示范区5个不同洼陷典型井组开展实例验证。结果表明:地质与油藏条件是影响立体开发效益的核心要素,权重达 0.4088;单井EUR、气油比、地层压力系数、脆性矿物含量、井距为关键性控制指标;5个井组综合效益排序为D>C>E>B>A,陆相断陷盆地页岩油立体开发普遍存在多维度效益错配特征,开发效果取决于地质禀赋、开发方案、工程工艺与经济投入的协同匹配。研究形成的评价体系可实现页岩油井组立体开发效益分级量化评价,能够为页岩油开发方案优选、先导试验效益评估、项目可行性论证提供方法支撑,为完善我国陆相页岩油立体开发科技管理与决策体系提供参考。

     

    Abstract: China possesses immense shale oil resource potential, emerging as a critical successor resource for increasing crude oil reserves and production. However, due to the relatively late start of exploration and development, the industry faces challenges such as high development costs, significant engineering and technical difficulties, and low single-well production. To accelerate the realization of profitable stereoscopic development of shale oil and ensure national energy security, this study systematically analyzes key factors influencing stereoscopic development efficiency, covering geology and reservoir, development, engineering, and economics. On this basis, a comprehensive, multi-level evaluation index system and an evaluation methodology comprising the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation were constructed. An empirical study was conducted on five typical development well groups in the Shengli Jiyang National Shale Oil Demonstration Zone. The results indicate that the primary factors significantly influencing the evaluation results include single-well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), gas-oil ratio, formation pressure coefficient, brittle mineral content, well spacing, burial depth, well pattern type, effective reservoir thickness, investment per well, and operating cost per ton of oil. It is urgent to deepen geological and reservoir understanding to guide engineering technology, optimize engineering techniques to achieve development targets, and establish economic indicators to coordinate development decisions, thereby realizing the integration of "geology & reservoir-development-engineering-economy." This research provides essential methodological guidance and practical insights for deepening the understanding of factors influencing shale oil stereoscopic development, scientifically evaluating development efficiency, enhancing shale oil production, development efficiency, and economic benefits, and safeguarding national energy security.

     

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