Abstract:
China possesses immense shale oil resource potential, emerging as a critical successor resource for increasing crude oil reserves and production. However, due to the relatively late start of exploration and development, the industry faces challenges such as high development costs, significant engineering and technical difficulties, and low single-well production. To accelerate the realization of profitable stereoscopic development of shale oil and ensure national energy security, this study systematically analyzes key factors influencing stereoscopic development efficiency, covering geology and reservoir, development, engineering, and economics. On this basis, a comprehensive, multi-level evaluation index system and an evaluation methodology comprising the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation were constructed. An empirical study was conducted on five typical development well groups in the Shengli Jiyang National Shale Oil Demonstration Zone. The results indicate that the primary factors significantly influencing the evaluation results include single-well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), gas-oil ratio, formation pressure coefficient, brittle mineral content, well spacing, burial depth, well pattern type, effective reservoir thickness, investment per well, and operating cost per ton of oil. It is urgent to deepen geological and reservoir understanding to guide engineering technology, optimize engineering techniques to achieve development targets, and establish economic indicators to coordinate development decisions, thereby realizing the integration of "geology & reservoir-development-engineering-economy." This research provides essential methodological guidance and practical insights for deepening the understanding of factors influencing shale oil stereoscopic development, scientifically evaluating development efficiency, enhancing shale oil production, development efficiency, and economic benefits, and safeguarding national energy security.