我国页岩油立体开发效益评价研究

Evaluation Research on Three-Dimensional Development Benefit of Shale Oil in China

  • 摘要: 我国原油对外依存度长期处于高位,页岩油已成为国内原油增储上产重要接替资源,立体开发是提升陆相页岩油储量动用程度、提高开发效益的关键技术模式。当前相关研究多聚焦开发技术优化与主控因素分析,缺少融合地质、开发、工程、经济多维度的页岩油立体开发效益定量评价体系。为此,系统梳理了页岩油立体开发效益主控因素,遵循“地质与油藏−开发−工程—经济”一体化思路,构建了包含4个一级指标、11个二级指标和19个三级指标的效益评价指标体系;融合层次分析法与模糊综合评价法,建立了页岩油立体开发井组综合效益定量评价方法。胜利济阳页岩油国家级示范区5个不同洼陷典型井组实例验证结果表明:地质与油藏条件是影响立体开发效益的核心要素,权重达 0.4088;单井EUR、气油比、地层压力系数、脆性矿物含量和井距为关键性控制指标;5个井组综合效益排序为D>C>E>B>A,陆相断陷盆地页岩油立体开发普遍存在多维度效益错配特征,开发效果取决于地质禀赋、开发方案、工程工艺与经济投入的协同匹配。研究形成的评价体系可实现页岩油井组立体开发效益分级量化评价,能够为页岩油开发方案优选、先导试验效益评估、项目可行性论证提供方法支撑,为完善我国陆相页岩油立体开发科学管理与决策体系提供参考。

     

    Abstract: China’s crude oil external dependence has long remained at a high level, and shale oil has become a crucial replacement resource for domestic crude oil reserve growth and production increase. Three-dimensional development is a key technological model for enhancing the degree of reserve utilization and improving development efficiency of continental shale oil. Current research predominantly focuses on development technology optimization and analysis of main controlling factors, whereas there is a lack of a quantitative benefit evaluation system for three-dimensional development of shale oil that integrates geological, development, engineering, and economic dimensions. To address this gap, a systematic analysis was made on the main controlling factors for three-dimensional development benefit of shale oil, and a benefit evaluation index system was constructed, comprising 4 primary indices, 11 secondary indices, and 19 tertiary indices, by following the integrated approach of “geology and reservoir–development–engineering–economy”. A quantitative evaluation method for the comprehensive three-dimensional development benefit of shale oil well groups was established by integrating analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Case validation was conducted using five typical well groups from different subsags within the Shengli Jiyang National Shale Oil Demonstration Zone. The results demonstrated that geological and reservoir conditions were the core factor influencing three-dimensional development benefit, with a weight of 0.4088. Single-well estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), gas-oil ratio, formation pressure coefficient, brittle mineral content, and well spacing were identified as key controlling indices. The comprehensive benefit ranking of the five well groups was D > C > E > B > A. A characteristic of multi-dimensional benefit mismatches is commonly observed in three-dimensional development of shale oil in continental fault basins, where development performance depends on the synergistic matching of geological endowment, development scheme, engineering technology, and economic investment. The evaluation system developed in this study enables graded quantitative benefit evaluation for three-dimensional development of shale oil well groups, providing methodological support for shale oil development scheme optimization, pilot test benefit evaluation, and project feasibility demonstration, and also offering a reference for improving the science and technology management and decision-making system for three-dimensional development of continental shale oil in China.

     

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